Wednesday, March 4, 2009

It's our 'secret'

By Doron Rosenblum, Haaretz

If the expression "a bad feeling" were a quarry, and if all the words related to "hope," "embrace" or "feel" could somehow be turned into capital, Israel could have this week become the richest and strongest country in the world. Aside from all kinds of essential words that described the location of journalists and the connection of interview subjects to the prisoner exchange with Hezbollah, sentences such as "accompanied by a bad feeling" and "we all embrace the families" once again filled our existence. Above all, that absurd expression, which has turned into a kind of national motto, is hovering over us once again: "I want to hope." It's an expression adopted by military and political leaders, of all people - those from whom we expect some kind of concrete and rational plan.

"We wanted to hope" that the captives would somehow come back alive, despite the intelligence information; the chief of staff "wanted to hope" that the Israel Defense Forces would smash Hezbollah in three days - if not at the beginning of the war, then at least by its conclusion; "we wanted to hope" that Syrian President Bashar Assad would agree to shake Ehud Olmert's hand and would forget about the Golan; "we wanted to hope" that Samir Kuntar and his friends would be raised on the values of Zionism and the good deeds they experienced during their decades of imprisonment, that Hezbollah would stop arming itself, or that Iran would be impressed by our threats and destroy its nuclear installations on its own. That's how it is when one "wants to hope." The sky's the limit.

In that sense, the "tough week" of the prisoner exchange deal was nothing new. We only emphasized to ourselves, and to an astonished world, the path that Israel as a country has chosen to follow for so many years, the path of magical thinking.

A path that, with a kind of joy-in-despair, has abandoned rational thought and primarily the consideration of long-term national interests and instead devotes itself, and does so with great pride, to "feelings" and desires: anger, revenge, pity, hopes, even if they that are cloaked, after the fact, in lofty words such as "values" and "sensitivities" and "respect for human life."

Although the prisoner exchange this week was more rational and reasonable than many of its predecessors, it still recalled a certain context. Almost every major step taken by Israel in the past decade - from a naive belief in Yasser Arafat to the unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon, to the overreaction to the intifadas, and up to the disengagement from Gaza and the Second Lebanon War - demonstrated not only an absence of logical thinking, but even a defiance of cold, rational considerations.

This could have been dubbed "the victory of hope" had there at least been some kind of victory here; but, in its absence, we have remained only with "wanting to hope": a kind of mystical faith that desire alone, plus "positive energies," would change reality by taking shortcuts through it and bypassing its laws.

In that sense, Israel may be ahead of its time: It long ago revealed "the secret," like the name of one of the New Age best sellers, which says that if we close our eyes tight and "want to hope," the thing will happen. If we only "embrace the families," make a decisive speech or "get our picture taken with Assad," the reality will change by itself, without a need to do anything about it (such as preparing the army for war, or waging a wise diplomatic offensive or making rational concessions in genuine negotiations). But unfortunately, Israel is living in a region that is entirely "Old Age": It is confronting the negative energies of enemies whose basic positions have not changed a millimeter for decades, and who adhere to the most basic utilitarian rationale, as far as they are concerned.

And, thus, when a leader like Hassan Nasrallah succeeds in jerking us around and toying with us and our "feelings" as though we were puppets on a string, we have to ask ourselves: Are we really facing an unbelievably demonic genius, or has the guy simply invaded the playing field that we have abandoned - the arena of practical and clever thinking, which once was unique to us in this region?

With the help of the media, which pursue emotions and weeping and embraces, in which the crocodile tears of promos for the Israeli versions of "Survivor" and "The Biggest Loser" mingle with the sorrow of those deceived by Hezbollah, the media have forgotten the meaning of "the real story," just as the army has long since forgotten the meaning of victory.

Because while we are wallowing in wishes, prayers, collective weeping and pseudo-familial embraces, the bad news is that our neighbors have simply discovered our "secret." While we are still focusing on emotions, they have adopted thinking.

ANALYSIS : In Lebanon, prisoner swap is Hezbollah victory

By Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz Correspondent

Hezbollah has been touting the prisoner exchange deal with Israel as confirmation that the Shi'ite militant group ultimately defeated Israel in the Second Lebanon War, but the swap is at least as much of a Hezbollah victory within Lebanon.
"The signatures of Olmert and Peres on the swap means official confirmation of the defeat and failure of the July aggression in the face of the will of the resistance," said Nabil Kaouk, Hezbollah's commander in southern Lebanon.

But the swap may be even more significant within Lebanon. Since the end of the war, Hezbollah has been trying hard to prove that even if it was mistaken in its assessment of Israel's response to its abduction of Israeli soldiers, the war had a positive outcome.

Despite UN Resolution 1701, which theoretically set strict limitations on military action, Hezbollah has strengthened itself militarily and politically since the war. It effectively annulled UN Resolution 1501, which laid the foundation for disarming it; it imposed its own conditions for the establishment of a new Lebanese government, attained veto power for important decisions, and is continuing its fight for an election law that would ensure it significant gains in next year's election.

The prisoner swap tops off the list of achievements.

"Despite differences of opinion within Lebanon, Hezbollah has managed to take advantage of every opportunity to strengthen its military and political capabilities," Kaouk also said.

The prisoner deal is one of those opportunities, which comes somewhat belatedly, since Hezbollah reaped most of its achievements on the domestic front before signing the swap. But the prisoner exchange is no longer needed as leverage in the domestic dispute.

Thus although the big celebrations tomorrow in the Lebanese town of Aabey and in southern Beirut, where the freed prisoners will be welcomed home, will augment the store of faith the public has in Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the celebrations are not enough to serve an immediate political aim.Nevertheless, it seems that Nasrallah is still not sure of his Israeli partner.

Tuesday's report in the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar about the way the swap will take place, and particularly about the doubt regarding whether one of the Israeli captives was still alive, shows that Nasrallah is holding onto another card meant to keep Israel from backtracking at the last minute.

Now what remains is to wait until Nasrallah gives a full report of the negotiations, including the tricks he played, and get the official Hezbollah version of the abduction. In his last speech, Nasrallah promised he would deliver more details, and it seems more unpleasant surprises await Israel.

The kidnapping of soldiers is considered in Lebanon to be part of Hezbollah's private accounting vis-a-vis Israel, and the swap is just one more page in this accounts ledger.

However, Hezbollah, which presents itself as a national resistance organization working for the interests of Lebanon, must still produce one more achievement: Israel's withdrawal from the Shaba Farms area. The Shaba Farms function as Hezbollah's justification for the claim that Israel did not fully withdraw from Lebanon, requiring Hezbollah to be armed so it can complete this mission too. Hezbollah is not opposed to
negotiations aimed at giving Lebanon control over the Shaba Farms; it simply does not believe in the Lebanese government's ability to achieve anything through talks with Israel.

The prisoner swap will serve Nasrallah as a banner to wave before the Lebanese government to prove the justness of Hezbollah's path.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Warren Buffett hints at Indian successor

MARCH 2 — There was Midas, and then there’s Warren Buffett. The world’s greatest living investor has been justly hailed as the Oracle of Omaha his financial skills catapulted him to the status of the worlds richest man last year, ahead of buddy and bridge partner Bill Gates, and Mexican telecom tycoon Carlos Slim Helu.

Now, Buffett has hinted that his successor may be a person of Indian origin, Ajit Jain. In his annual letter to shareholders of his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett showered praise on Jain, who handles the reinsurance division.

He wrote, “Ajit came to Berkshire in 1986. Very quickly, I realised we had acquired an extraordinary talent. So I did the logical thing: I wrote his parents in New Delhi and asked if they had another one like him at home. Of course, I knew the answer before writing. There isn’t anyone like Ajit.”

Jain is a graduate of IIT Kharagpur and has an MBA from Harvard. A former McKinsey executive, he migrated to the US as his wife was keen to live there.

Buffett calls the reinsurance division “one of the most remarkable businesses in the world” because it employs only 31 people but generates billions. “It features very large transactions, incredible speed of execution and a willingness to quote on policies that leave others scratching their heads. When there is a huge and unusual risk to be insured, Ajit is almost certain to be called.” — Times of India